dataandoutdoors

Dan Shaffer's blog posts about statistics, data science, outdoor recreation, and rural Michigan.

Author: DanShaffer

  • December-February Northern Michigan Search Interest

    Search interest was very low for November in both the Upper and Lower Peninsula. Weather was also unseasonably warm. Weather is forecasted to be above normal again in December and about normal in January and February. This coupled with above normal forecasted precipitation means that January-mid March will likely be snow covered like a normal… Read more

  • Back to the Basics of Camping IV

    While hot tenting may sound like a youthful euphemism, it means using a heater in a tent intended for camping. While some may point out that cold temperatures are easily handled by a correctly rated sleeping bag and sleeping pad, what they might forget to mention is that this method becomes less comfortable the colder… Read more

  • November-January Northern Michigan Search Interest

    November-January have among the lowest Google search interest of the year for Northern Michigan. Forecasts for both peninsulas are higher than last year. Weather forecasts are warmer than normal but with higher precipitation. Based on these forecasts, snow coverage is probable for at least a significant part of December (especially the Upper Peninsula) and all… Read more

  • Setting the Standard

    Michigan is famous for many different things including the auto-industry, the assembly line, and post-manufacturing blight in places like Detroit. However, Michigan’s landscape is best characterized by Great Lakes, rivers, and forests. It was these that brought the French to our region using waterways to skirt the edges of the vast woodland to trade for… Read more

  • Michigan Outdoor Recreation Search Interest–Installment IV

    The purpose of this installment is to determine whether the search interest data introduced during the first two installments and the weather data introduced during the third installment are correlated. The general idea is that people will search for outdoor recreation search terms differently in some weather conditions than others. Note there are 10 search… Read more

  • Upper Peninsula Search Interest Sources–Northern Michigan Search Interest Addendum

    During 2024, Upper Peninsula search interest has underperformed forecasts. Lower search interest during the first months of the year was undoubtedly partly caused by a very warm winter with little snow limiting winter sports often popular in the Upper Peninsula. However, this low search interest has continued into the 2024 summer peak. Previous investigations compared… Read more

  • Mackinac Bridge Crossings–Northern Michigan Search Interest Addendum

    In the Google search interest project for Northern Michigan, I’ve found that Upper Peninsula search interest has underperformed the forecast. Previously, Upper Peninsula search interest was growing. Here, I look at bridge crossings for the Mackinac Bridge, which is between the Upper and Lower Peninsula. Bridge crossings do not show the same trend as search… Read more

  • October-December Northern Michigan Search Interest

    Search interest for Northern Michigan continues to underperform actuals for the Upper Peninsula (and, to a lesser extent, the Northern Lower Peninsula). The Upper Peninsula showed a larger increase in search interest during the last several years. Since my current forecast methodology uses the previous year’s actual as a starting point, this tends to increase… Read more

  • Michigan Outdoor Recreation Search Interest–Installment III

    This is the third installment of my look at Google search interest in 10 forms of outdoor recreation from within Michigan. This installment actually looks at four different weather variables for Michigan that I will later correlate with search interest–maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow depth. Read more

  • September-November Northern Michigan Search Interest

    New search interest forecasts are unremarkable given the last several months. Generally, actuals have been below forecasts, especially for the Upper Peninsula. Weather forecasts remain relatively warm with normal precipitation. Also of note are continued issues with variance between Google trends data pulls. With last month’s data pull, search interest peaks were increasing from 2020-2023.… Read more