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Spring into Summer
Unto every man the creator gives 100 blissful days. It is a sin not to celebrate each and every one. –Alekos, A Brief Candle, Stargate SG-1 ______________________________________________________________ On a weekend in mid-May, I lay awake under a tarp as the rain fell around me and the lightning illuminated my surroundings with quick bursts of light.
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July-September Northern Michigan Search Interest
This is my forecast for Google search interest for Northern Michigan places, July-September 2025. Forecasts and actuals continue to be lower than last year due to the downward trend in search interest I’ve often mentioned and investigated. However, search interest will be at its peak next month. This peak is forecasted to be about 80%
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Michigan Outdoor Recreation Installment 7
This is my second model option for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This option employs the same nonstationary model as model 1, but replaces the VAR model with a neural network for the stationary model. The hope was that this would allow more flexibility in the impact of weather
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Forgetting America’s Tradition
I’ll sleep with one eye open, ‘neath God’s celestial stars. –Tom Russell On a June weekend I walked by the remnants of a concrete foundation on the banks of the Au Sable river. Without the historical marker, I wouldn’t have thought much otherwise, as old foundations aren’t uncommon in northern Michigan’s forests. But this was
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June-August Northern Michigan Search Interest
This is my forecast for Google search interest for Northern Michigan places, June-August 2025. Forecasts and actuals continue to be lower than last year due to the downward trend in search interest I’ve often mentioned and investigated. However, search interest will be at its peak during the next few months. For the Northern Lower, warmer
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Michigan Outdoor Recreation Search Interest Installment 6
This is my sixth installment of my project looking at Google search interest for ten types of outdoor recreation in Michigan: atving, boating, camping, fishing, hiking, kayaking, rving, hunting, skiing, and snowmobiling. Previous installments were exploratory analysis of the data. This is my first attempt/option for fitting models to and forecasting the data series. I
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May-July Northern Michigan Search Interest
For May-July, we should see an increase to peak yearly Google search interest for Nothern Michigan places. This peak is forecasted to be lower than recent years, despite forecasts for relatively warm weather. This matches recent downward trends in search interest. The 2025 model changes I implemented in February (and additional changes in March) continue
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Michigan Outdoor Recreation Search Interest Installment 5
This is the fifth installment of my outdoor recreation search interest project. This project investigates Google search interest from Michigan for 10 different outdoor recreation activities. The data is daily starting in 2021. This project was motivated by my Northern Michigan search interest projects as a companion project and a way to investigate underlying drivers
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Early Spring
Raindrops on the treetopsWaiting there to fallI know how they’re feelingBut I’m only, yes I’m only, halfway down –Patty Loveless On the weekend before the official first day of spring, I was outdoors listening to the wind swinging the branches of the trees. Springtime is famous for its strong winds, probably due to temperature changes
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April-June Northern Michigan Search Interest
Search interest remains lower than previous years and is forecasted to remain lower. After making my model changes for 2025, my forecasts continue to be very close to actuals. The previous forecast provided in my document is actually the February forecast instead of the March forecast as I overwrote my March forecast. However, even two