This is a summary of my project analyzing Google search interest for 10 forms of outdoor recreation from inside Michigan: atving, boating, camping, fishing, hiking, kayaking, rving, hunting, skiing, and snowmobiling. I’ve also created models to provide short term forecasts for search interest. The main project page can be found at the link at the Read more

This is my ninth installment for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This is my last main installment for this project. Previously, I developed models for outdoor recreation in Michigan which are based on weather: maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow depth. This installment is about getting forecasts for these weather Read more

This is my ninth installment for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This installment provides a final cross validation comparison between two of the three models I developed during previous installments: Unsurprisngly, the best model depends on which of the ten forms of outdoor recreation you are modeling. It’s important to Read more

This is my third model option for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This approach uses a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. This is a recurrent neural network that considers sequences of values while also considering a state when creating model predictions. This model shows a lot of promise. Read more

This is my second model option for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This option employs the same nonstationary model as model 1, but replaces the VAR model with a neural network for the stationary model. The hope was that this would allow more flexibility in the impact of weather Read more

This is my sixth installment of my project looking at Google search interest for ten types of outdoor recreation in Michigan: atving, boating, camping, fishing, hiking, kayaking, rving, hunting, skiing, and snowmobiling. Previous installments were exploratory analysis of the data. This is my first attempt/option for fitting models to and forecasting the data series. I Read more

This is the fifth installment of my outdoor recreation search interest project. This project investigates Google search interest from Michigan for 10 different outdoor recreation activities. The data is daily starting in 2021. This project was motivated by my Northern Michigan search interest projects as a companion project and a way to investigate underlying drivers Read more

The purpose of this installment is to determine whether the search interest data introduced during the first two installments and the weather data introduced during the third installment are correlated. The general idea is that people will search for outdoor recreation search terms differently in some weather conditions than others. Note there are 10 search Read more

This is the third installment of my look at Google search interest in 10 forms of outdoor recreation from within Michigan. This installment actually looks at four different weather variables for Michigan that I will later correlate with search interest–maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow depth. Read more

In the first installment, I discussed the basic topic, data, trends, and correlations for this project. This project is to study and forecast trends for Google search interest from Michigan for 10 forms of outdoor recreation. I showed the historical trends for this data, which is sometimes trending upward or downwards and always shows various Read more