dataandoutdoors

Dan Shaffer's blog posts about statistics, data science, outdoor recreation, and rural Michigan.

April-June Northern Michigan Search Interest

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Search interest remains lower than previous years and is forecasted to remain lower. After making my model changes for 2025, my forecasts continue to be very close to actuals. The previous forecast provided in my document is actually the February forecast instead of the March forecast as I overwrote my March forecast. However, even two months out my February forecast was very close to actuals in March. Actuals were a little higher than the forecast.

This update is late this month. I ran into issues doing data pulls from google trends and was also engaged in other activities such as exams for micromasters classes I am taking and my own outdoors pursuits. In fact, it was my running these models from a picnic table on a Lake Michigan beach that contributed to me accidently overwriting my March forecast. I do hope to resume work on my outdoor recreation search interest forecasts soon. This is the companion project to the Northern Michigan search interest project.

All and all, we are moving into peak summer search interest. However, weather is forecasted to be relatively normal and search interest is trending downward. So search interest will probably be low compared to previous peaks.