This is my search interest forecast for September-November. The main project page for this forecast, and corresponding background information, is linked at the bottom of this page.

Search interest for August continued to be lower than last year. The Lower Peninsula value was extremely similar to forecasted. The Upper Peninsula value was higher than forecasted. In other words, while the Upper Peninsula value may have been lower than last year, it was higher than anticipated by the last year’s trend.

Note that the peak search interest tends to be July only for the Lower Pensinsula and both July and August for the Upper Pensinsula. What we’ve seen this year is that during the peak of the year actuals have exceeded forecasts, but that hasn’t been the case for other months. Eventually, the downward trends in search interest that I’ve discussed many times should come to an end, and the higher peak search interest does provide some hope this will be sooner than later. Regardless, the current model methodology will eventually account for this change in trend when it does occur.

The future three month forecast shows lower levels than last year for the Lower Peninsula and similar levels to last year for the Upper Peninsula. The weather forecasts these are partially based on continue to be mixed. For instance, max temperature forecasts tend to be average or lower compared to the last several years while average and min temperatures tend to be average or higher.

I continue to be satisfied with the performance of these models.