This is my next forecast for Google search interest in Michigan for 10 forms of Outdoor Recreation. These are 14 day forecasts based on a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network including variables for weather, recent search interest, time of year, day of week, and holidays. The main project page is pasted at the bottom.

This forecast provides a second look at Labor Day weekend.

I’ve started providing two weeks of past actuals (instead of one) and the past forecast. Providing the past forecast helps to look at two things from week to week:

1.) How close the last forecast was to the past week of actuals.

2.) How close is each forecast to each other.

Looking at the past forecasts it’s obvious that weekly seasonality changes from week to week for several of the series. We know that, usually, the highest search interest for outdoor recreation is on Friday and Saturday. However, on some weeks search interest can be highest on Saturday and Sunday. For ATVing, search interest is often highest on Monday and Tuesday. I’m guessing that’s because people are looking up planned ATV related purchases due to seeing others on ATVs during the weekend, thinking of improvments to their own systems imagined during the weekend, or encountering needed repairs and maintentance during weekend riding.