This is my forecast for Google search interest for Northern Michigan places, August-October 2025. July was the peak annual search interest. This peak was slightly lower for both peninsulas than last year. However, it was higher than forecasted. I had forecasted that search levels would be 80% of the 2022 peak for the Lower Peninsula and 70% of the 2022 peak for the Upper Peninsula. Actual values were 85% for the Lower Peninsula and 83% for the Upper. The amount that the Upper exceeded forecast was fairly substantial.

With last year’s forecast methodology, I probably would have forecasted 100% or max historical search levels for this year again. My current forecast methodology better accounts for the downward trend of the past few years. Eventually, this downward trend should (hopefully) level off and my model will start forecasting lower than actuals until it eventually adjusts itself for the change in trend. These high peak July values could be a sign that the downward trend is indeed leveling off. However, one can’t draw immediate conclusions from a single month especially given that May and June did not exhibit this behavior.

For my outdoor recreation search interest project, I plan on releasing another installment soon. This is a companion project to this one.