Author: DanShaffer
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Woodcock Pictures
A while ago, I made a blogpost entitled “An Odd Bird” where I wrote about the characteristics, habitat, and habits of the American Woodcock: https://dataandoutdoors.com/an-odd-bird/ In that post, I had a few pictures of woodcock habitat but no pictures of woodcock. As I described in the post, woodcock are well camouflaged and remain well hidden… Read more
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April-June Northern Michigan Search Interest
For April-June, we see continued forecasts for warm and dry weather. Forecasted search interest is slightly higher from last year with forecasts similar to last month. However, it’s important to note that the Upper Peninsula achieved far lower search interest during March than expected. Seasonal trends for the Upper Peninsula seem more similar to pre-2020… Read more
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Who Decides?
Ever since the days of old Men would search for wealth untold They’d dig for silver and for gold And leave the empty holes –John Anderson The United States is gifted with more public lands, open spaces, wilderness, and clear waters than most developed nations. Our decisions regarding this gift comprise a long history and… Read more
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March-May Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast
Weather forecasts continue to be warm and relatively dry. If this continues into summer, it may have a more positive impact on Lower Peninsula search interest, especially on the west side of the state where search interest for many places is more sensitive to weather. The impact of warm summers on Upper Peninsula search interest… Read more
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An Odd Bird
The American woodcock is a migratory upland bird that resides in Northern forests and swamps during the summer. Woodcock are plentiful but their population is declining with the habitat they call home. While a common find for those that look for them, all but the frequent woodsman might go their entire lives without seeing this… Read more
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Tree-Based Models
My post discusses the limitations and capabilities of decision trees and more advanced tree-based methods. While much of this may seem critical, decision trees can often be useful and surprisingly effective at approximating complex non-linearities and discarding irrelevant predictors with limited analyst input all while being fairly robust to missing and non-sensical values. I enjoy… Read more
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Fireflies
“Burn the land, boil the sea”“You can’t take the sky from me” Firefly Series Theme Song (Ballad of Serenity, Sonny Rhodes) I’ll start by mentioning that I don’t know much about fireflies, neither their biology, behavior, nor habitat. Like most, I know that fireflies are known for their glowing abdomens that are used in their… Read more
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February-April Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast
This is an exciting update, given that I have made several changes to the forecasting methodology this month. I updated the methodology to reduce volatility in the forecast from month to month, reduce reliance on unreliable predictor variables, and to increase the intuitiveness of forecasted values. You can refer to documents (Implementation_Summary_New.pdf) attached to the… Read more
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Priceless from the Worthless
Back in the 1890s, some loggers were felling virgin forests north of Grayling, Michigan. As the 1890s were well past the peak of the Michigan logging boom, this couldn’t have been the choice patch of forest for lumber in the first place. Then disaster struck in the form a stock market crash and the company… Read more
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January-March Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast
The January forecast for Northern Michigan Google search interest predicts similar search interest to the December forecast which is similar to previous years. The Upper Peninsula forecast is lower than the December forecast and shows slightly lower search interest from previous years. For January, I have a special edition segment on Lower Peninsula places with… Read more