Author: DanShaffer
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Tree-Based Models
My post discusses the limitations and capabilities of decision trees and more advanced tree-based methods. While much of this may seem critical, decision trees can often be useful and surprisingly effective at approximating complex non-linearities and discarding irrelevant predictors with limited analyst input all while being fairly robust to missing and non-sensical values. I enjoy… Read more
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Fireflies
“Burn the land, boil the sea”“You can’t take the sky from me” Firefly Series Theme Song (Ballad of Serenity, Sonny Rhodes) I’ll start by mentioning that I don’t know much about fireflies, neither their biology, behavior, nor habitat. Like most, I know that fireflies are known for their glowing abdomens that are used in their… Read more
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February-April Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast
This is an exciting update, given that I have made several changes to the forecasting methodology this month. I updated the methodology to reduce volatility in the forecast from month to month, reduce reliance on unreliable predictor variables, and to increase the intuitiveness of forecasted values. You can refer to documents (Implementation_Summary_New.pdf) attached to the… Read more
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Priceless from the Worthless
Back in the 1890s, some loggers were felling virgin forests north of Grayling, Michigan. As the 1890s were well past the peak of the Michigan logging boom, this couldn’t have been the choice patch of forest for lumber in the first place. Then disaster struck in the form a stock market crash and the company… Read more
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January-March Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast
The January forecast for Northern Michigan Google search interest predicts similar search interest to the December forecast which is similar to previous years. The Upper Peninsula forecast is lower than the December forecast and shows slightly lower search interest from previous years. For January, I have a special edition segment on Lower Peninsula places with… Read more
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December-February Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast
My Google search interest forecast for Northern Michigan places during the next three months continues to show higher levels for the Upper Peninsula and slightly lower forecasts for the Lower Peninsula. During this period, we would expect some of the lowest search interest of the year with this impact reduced in the Upper Peninsula due… Read more
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The Skills Shortage in Data Related Occupations
You won’t be around any sort of professional circle, social media, or talent network long without hearing about the extreme talent shortfalls for data analytics, data science, data engineering, and data analysis along with related skill sets in math, statistics, computer science, and quantitative business and social science. This leads one to wonder to what… Read more
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A Bird in Search of Heaven
Ruffed grouse are a large, non-migratory bird of the northern forests. They are northerners especially these days as they’re in short supply in areas like the Appalachian Mountains where they were once plentiful. In Indiana, they have been on the state endangered list since 2020. Nonetheless, they are plentiful in the northern portions of Michigan,… Read more
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Regularized Regression: Good for Goldilocks or the Worst of Both Worlds?
Is regularized regression a happy medium or does it simply combine the disadvantages of traditional regression and machine learning approaches? The answer is that there is a bit of truth to both outlooks. (Note: Moving forward I refer to regression as more traditional linear/semi-linear prediction models for either continuous or classification tasks. This is as… Read more
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Back to the Basics of Camping
Many people say that humans are social animals. But there are plenty of social animals. Our obsession with things is what makes us human. Our ability to use and make everything from basic tools to the most complex modern technology is what makes us different from the other animals. It’s not surprising that this has… Read more