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Michigan Outdoor Recreation Installment 9
This is my ninth installment for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This installment provides a final cross validation comparison between two of the three models I developed during previous installments: Unsurprisngly, the best model depends on which of the ten forms of outdoor recreation you are modeling. It’s important to
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Summer Ends
“Since you could sing all summer, you can dance all winter.” –The Ant to the Grasshopper At the end of July, I drove down a dirt road forested on one side and a clearing on the other. This was the same clearing I wrote about before where there was a burn and the grass in
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September-November Northern Michigan Search Interest
This is my search interest forecast for September-November. The main project page for this forecast, and corresponding background information, is linked at the bottom of this page. Search interest for August continued to be lower than last year. The Lower Peninsula value was extremely similar to forecasted. The Upper Peninsula value was higher than forecasted.
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Michigan Outdoor Recreation Installment 8
This is my third model option for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This approach uses a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. This is a recurrent neural network that considers sequences of values while also considering a state when creating model predictions. This model shows a lot of promise.
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August-October Northern Michigan Search Interest
This is my forecast for Google search interest for Northern Michigan places, August-October 2025. July was the peak annual search interest. This peak was slightly lower for both peninsulas than last year. However, it was higher than forecasted. I had forecasted that search levels would be 80% of the 2022 peak for the Lower Peninsula
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Spring into Summer
Unto every man the creator gives 100 blissful days. It is a sin not to celebrate each and every one. –Alekos, A Brief Candle, Stargate SG-1 ______________________________________________________________ On a weekend in mid-May, I lay awake under a tarp as the rain fell around me and the lightning illuminated my surroundings with quick bursts of light.
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July-September Northern Michigan Search Interest
This is my forecast for Google search interest for Northern Michigan places, July-September 2025. Forecasts and actuals continue to be lower than last year due to the downward trend in search interest I’ve often mentioned and investigated. However, search interest will be at its peak next month. This peak is forecasted to be about 80%
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Michigan Outdoor Recreation Installment 7
This is my second model option for forecasting search interest for ten forms of outdoor recreation in Michigan. This option employs the same nonstationary model as model 1, but replaces the VAR model with a neural network for the stationary model. The hope was that this would allow more flexibility in the impact of weather
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Forgetting America’s Tradition
I’ll sleep with one eye open, ‘neath God’s celestial stars. –Tom Russell On a June weekend I walked by the remnants of a concrete foundation on the banks of the Au Sable river. Without the historical marker, I wouldn’t have thought much otherwise, as old foundations aren’t uncommon in northern Michigan’s forests. But this was
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June-August Northern Michigan Search Interest
This is my forecast for Google search interest for Northern Michigan places, June-August 2025. Forecasts and actuals continue to be lower than last year due to the downward trend in search interest I’ve often mentioned and investigated. However, search interest will be at its peak during the next few months. For the Northern Lower, warmer