dataandoutdoors

Dan Shaffer's blog posts about statistics, data science, outdoor recreation, and rural Michigan.

February-April Northern Michigan Search Interest Forecast

Posted by:

|

On:

|

This is an exciting update, given that I have made several changes to the forecasting methodology this month. I updated the methodology to reduce volatility in the forecast from month to month, reduce reliance on unreliable predictor variables, and to increase the intuitiveness of forecasted values.

You can refer to documents (Implementation_Summary_New.pdf) attached to the main search interest tab for this website for more information on methodology changes.

Given current weather forecasts, we can anticipate a relatively warm three months with less than usual precipitation (i.e. snow). Search interest forecasts show slightly higher search interest than 2023 for both the Lower and Upper Peninsula but quite a bit lower interest than 2022.