dataandoutdoors

Dan Shaffer's blog posts about statistics, data science, outdoor recreation, and rural Michigan.

September-November Northern Michigan Search Interest

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New search interest forecasts are unremarkable given the last several months. Generally, actuals have been below forecasts, especially for the Upper Peninsula. Weather forecasts remain relatively warm with normal precipitation.

Also of note are continued issues with variance between Google trends data pulls. With last month’s data pull, search interest peaks were increasing from 2020-2023. However, with the recent month’s data pull the 2023 peak search level was lower. Naturally, these two results tell two different stories concerning search interest in the Upper Peninsula. Was search interest trending upward until now or did it already start a decline in 2023?

I added a more thorough investigation of Upper Peninsula trends as an addendum (as my main report continues to get longer and longer). Overall, it’s appearing more likely that higher peak search interest for the Upper Peninsula following 2020 was less of a long term trend and more of a spurt. In fact, in my outdoor recreation search interest project, I’ve found that continued search interest in outdoor recreation activities following 2020 has been mixed during the last year or two.

However, it’s also possible that the Google trends data itself has changed behind the scenes. As these changes aren’t necessarily public or, at least, publicized it’s hard to determine for certain what these might be.